From r* to monetary policy stance: Evidence from Poland

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18559/ref.2026.1.3013

Keywords:

monetary policy stance, SVEC, natural real interest rate, inflation expectations, natural rate gap

Abstract

This paper estimates Poland’s time-varying natural real interest rate and natural-rate gap over 2010Q1–2025Q1 and examines how a natural-rate-gap innovation propagates in a Structural Vector Error Correction (SVEC) framework. The measurement stage uses a Laubach-Williams-type state-space model disciplined by an ex ante real policy rate constructed from survey-based inflation expectations. The transmission stage embeds the estimated gap in a cointegrated macro-financial system covering activity, inflation, the real effective exchange rate, the term spread, debt-service costs and the natural-rate gap, with domestic and external controls. The estimated natural rate declines around the pandemic period and rises sharply during the post-pandemic tightening episode. Robustness analysis based on alternative expectations measures, GDP/GVA activity indicators, moderate calibration variants and one-sided filtering preserves the main cyclical profile, while highly flexible natural-rate specifications behave as diagnostic stress tests. SVEC results indicate bounded and weakly estimated transmission: statistically informative responses are sparse, CPI provides the clearest limited nominal evidence, and forecast-error-variance contributions remain small for most macro-financial variables. The natural-rate gap is therefore informative for monetary-stance assessment, but not a standalone explanation of Polish macroeconomic fluctuations.

JEL Classification

Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models (C32)
Model Construction and Estimation (C51)
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects (E43)
Monetary Policy (E52)

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Published

2026-10-05

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Patryk Kołbyko

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Kołbyko, P. (2026). From r* to monetary policy stance: Evidence from Poland. Research Papers in Economics and Finance, 10(1), 117-151. https://doi.org/10.18559/ref.2026.1.3013

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